منابع مشابه
Fluctuations in Confidence and Asymmetric Business Cycles
There is now a great deal of empirical evidence that business cycle uctuations contain asymmetries. The asymmetries found in post-war US data are inconsistent with the behavior of the US economy in the Great Depression. In a model where business cycle asymmetries are produced by rational uctuations in the con dence of investors, I examine whether this inconsistency can be explained by di erence...
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This paper analyzes the quantitative importance of adaptive learning in business cycle fluctuations. We first introduce adaptive learning in a real business cycle model and a New Keynesian model, using specifications drawn from the literature which assume that agents learn about the equilibrium laws of motion. We consider a variety of learning rules, and find that in both environments learning ...
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When a boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom is more gradual. Our explanation rests on learning about productivity. When agents believe productivity is high, they work, invest, and produce more. More production generates higher precision information. When the boom ends, precise estimates of the slowdown prompt decisive reactions: Investment and labo...
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In this Paper, business cycle asymmetry in Iran has been investigated using a nonlinear unobserved component model. In this regard, according to Kim and Nelsonchr('39')s (1999) interpretation of Friedman plucking model (1993), asymmetric transitory component has been modeled and simultaneously the possibility of a correlation between transitory and permanent shocks has also been considered. The...
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In the last decade of the 20th century, the U.S. economy witnessed a persistent and substantial increase in private investment. The boom was sharply reversed in 2001, and a great deal of evidence suggests that the capital stock had become excessive. Standard equilibrium business cycle models have difficulties in predicting the investment boom and overshooting. An embodied technology model is co...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Monetary Economics
سال: 2021
ISSN: 0304-3932
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.01.010